Timing and magnitude of climate-driven range shifts in transboundary fish stocks challenge their management
Juliano Palacios- Abrantes, Thomas L. Frölicher, Gabriel Reygondeau, U. Rashid Sumaila, Alessandro Tagliabue, Colette C. C. Wabnitz, William W. L. Cheung
Palacios-Abrantes, J. et al. 2021. "Timing and magnitude of climate- driven range shifts in transboundary fish stocks challenge their management." Global Change Biology 28, 2312-2326 (2021). https:// 10.1111/gcb.16058.
Climate change is shifting the distribution of shared fish stocks between neighboring countries’ Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) and the high seas. The timescale of these transboundary shifts determines how climate change will affect international fisheries governance. This paper explores this timescale by coupling a large ensemble simulation of an Earth system model under a high emission climate change scenario to a dynamic population model. It shows that by 2030, 23% of transboundary stocks will have shifted and 78% of the world's EEZs will have experienced at least one shifting stock. By the end of this century, projections show a total of 45% of stocks shifting globally and 81% of EEZs waters with at least one shifting stock.